Population is Exploding.....or Is It?

One of my favorite movies to watch as a child was the 1989 version of Saturday’s Warriors. I used to watch that recording almost every Sunday. Even then I was a sucker for movies with fun music in it. One of the more upbeat, catchy songs was called “Zero Population.” The main character, Jimmy, has a group of friends who don’t believe in the same values he has been taught his entire life. The importance of family being one of them. That particular song, sung by his group of friends, is about how people should limit the number of children they have because there are only so many resources to go around. Their contempt for those who do have many children was quite clear.

At the time I was not able to understand the full implications of what they meant other than to laugh out the screen and say. “You are part of the population, stupid. If there was zero you would not be around to talk about it.” Yeah, debate skills of a regular genius, I know. But even at that young age I was disturbed by the message. Family has always been a prominent part in my life. I was raised where I was surrounded by the support and care of aunts, uncles, cousins and family friends. Though my immediate family was not the largest I knew, not even close, we were a fairly good size with five children. The thought that we were unintentionally causing harm simply by the desire for a full, and complete family, was unsettling to me. I could not nor can I imagine a life without one of my siblings. If my parents had decided only to have a couple of us, there would be three precious members missing. More than that my mother was the youngest daughter of a family of twelve. Would our family even exist if my grandparents had decided to stop at four, or seven, or even ten?

However, I can also understand the concern people have on overpopulation. I too have had social studies classes where I have seen the enormous amounts of resources consumed by the world on a daily basis. I have seen the graphs that show the sharp upward curve of the world’s population in the last few decades alone and I felt the dread of wondering if we were rapidly heading to world that could not sustain its growing population.

This was the topic that we discussed in my Family Relations class this week but this time, it showed a new side that I have never seen before. We watched a show called The Demographic Winter. You can find both parts on YouTube if you are so inclined. It starts out by pointing out the increase in population. It started mostly after World War II. The seemingly endless war was over. Life was hopeful and many were starting anew. One of the many results is what is known as the Baby Boom. In fact, studies show that the amount of children born was really that large at all. The fundamental difference was that people are not dying like they used to. World War II gave birth to a multitude of modern medicines. Which has extended the life of thousands. Children were no longer replacing and adding to the population, they are adding onto the population that is already there.

The research also pointed out a fact that I had never heard before. That, unless some change is made, the population will decline in the next few decades if not sooner. The reasons for this? The amount of births per woman, known as the fertility rate, has dropped. More and more woman are have fewer children, usually later in their lives, or not have children at all.

Some might view this as a good thing that the population will slow and start to decline but is it. The rising generations will become smaller and smaller while the retiring generation stays large. If there are not enough of the rising population with the elderly be able to receive the proper care they need in their later years. Also, the US in particular, has shown a decline in education, will they be trained enough to take on the jobs their predecessors will leave behind.

The show words it far better than I can. It is hard to predict what will happen in the future but every path leads somewhere. It is just a matter of what will be on the end of it.

I strongly encourage you to watch the shows. They explain it far better than I can.

The New Economic Reality Demographic Winter Part 1

The New Economic Reatlity Demographic Winter Part 2

Until next time,

Sapphire

Assessing Research with a Studied Eye

Hello Readers,

I know, looooooooong time since my last post. Once again it is an assignment for a class and I just hope I do better than I did last semester. Also hoping it becomes a habit because one way or another I know that I am going to be involved in child development for the rest of my life so I should always have something to write about.

Having completed all my generals, every one of my classes are related to child development this semester. So don't be too surprised if I talk about things from multiple classes and I will not always specify which class. Partially because there is so much information swirling around in my brain I sometimes forget where I got it once it is in there. :) Hey, a girl can only remember so much, some information has to go.

The class that this blog has now become an assignment for this semester is called Family Relations. This week was mostly just introduction. Learning what we can expect from the class and so on. I have a good feeling about the class so far. It is not going to be easy. Looks like there is going to be some work involved but the teacher is knowledgeable and fun.

This week our discussion centered around discerning truth. This time in our history is filled with information so readily available to millions around the world. However I remember my Dad once saying that it was also the period of misinformation. Untruths mingled and sometimes blended right in with truth. So it is important to learn how to sort them out.

Over the years, as my teachers have repeatedly tried to teach me how to write good research papers I have learned a few things about making sure a source is credible. Check who the writer is. Check when it was published. Check the website, etc. etc. etc. This week we took it a step further in actually taking apart a credible research document and I learned a few more tricks.

One, always watch out for bias. When I was in high school I learned the best way to ensure you are not getting all your information from a biased source is to look up multiple and opposite views on a particular topic. We all have our biases, whether we are aware of them or not. Researchers are no exception. Just something to be aware of. During class I found myself wondering how to avoid bias and I suppose the best way would be to have researchers from both sides of an idea come together to work on the project.......not sure how well that would go though or if they would be able to work well together.

Two, make sure to look at the statistics. Surveys are a common theme in research. However, surveys are not always very effective. Those taking them can be led to answer by the wording of the question. Sometimes the number of people surveyed are not a large enough in order to get an idea of what the rest of the population in the group is like.

Three, the importance of a control group. A control group is basically taking a normal group of people in order to see how it compares to the group that is being surveyed. For example. If you wanted to test whether or not a new teaching method is going to be effective. You have several schools that agree to start implementing this new teaching methods and then you survey throughout the year to see if it is having an affect on the children's learning. At the same time there should be other schools that should be put under the same survey that have not applied the method so you can compare the two.

Makes me realize how much trust I have put in my teachers over the years who supply me with research articles to read in order to teach me a certain theory or idea. I rarely looked at who it had been written by, the statistics or other matters of the case. I simply took it at face value and that was that.

I think my writing of research papers just became a whole lot harder. Not only is there finding good sources, not I am going to be wondering how accurate they are.

Alright, I think that is it for now, catch you all later.